Coerced Returns: Safety of Burundian Refugees Sent Home From Tanzania Under Scrutiny
BUJUMBURA, Burundi - Tens of thousands of Burundian refugees have returned home from Tanzania since December 2025 under conditions that civil society organisations and security analysts say fall well short of genuinely voluntary, raising alarm over political persecution ahead of Burundi's 2027 presidential elections.
The returns accelerated after a November 2025 agreement between Tanzania, Burundi and the United Nations Refugee Agency (UNHCR) to close two major camps - Nduta and Nyarugusu - by mid-2026. Most returnees came from Nduta, which closed in April. Together, the closures affect approximately 142,000 Burundian refugees, the majority of whom originally fled after former president Pierre Nkurunziza's bid for a third presidential term triggered violent protests in 2015, a failed coup attempt and years of government repression.
Refugees, humanitarian organisations and civil society organisations have documented intimidation by Tanzanian police inside the camps. Within Burundi, arbitrary arrests and enforced disappearances of civilians have deepened fears among those facing pressure to return. Members and supporters of Burundi's political opposition are particularly worried about persecution should they go back, citing the climate of repression that has persisted since the 2015 political crisis.
The Institute for Security Studies, based in Tshwane, warned in a June 2026 analysis co-authored by Tatien Nkeshimana and Bram Verelst that coercive repatriation risks reproducing cycles of displacement. The analysts noted the timing is not politically neutral: Burundi's next presidential elections are scheduled for 2027, and displacement intersects uncomfortably with electoral dynamics. Before the 2020 elections, the Burundian government promoted the return of refugees, opposition figures and civil society leaders as a means to legitimise the electoral process, while state repression weakened the domestic opposition and produced polls without open protest.
Three factors have driven increased returns in recent years, according to the analysis: Burundi has promoted repatriation as evidence of domestic stability; UNHCR shifted from facilitating to actively promoting voluntary returns; and the tripartite Tanzania-Burundi-UNHCR commission, which has met annually since 2017 to evaluate living conditions and deliberate on dignified repatriation, built sustained institutional momentum. By November 2025, roughly 184,000 refugees had returned under the commission's framework.
For communities within Burundi, the human consequences are immediate and direct. Documented arbitrary detentions and enforced disappearances signal a security environment in which returnees - particularly those with political affiliations or opposition ties - face genuine risk. Civil society organisations have raised concerns publicly, but their capacity to monitor the welfare of returned refugees is itself constrained by the broader climate of repression that has weakened domestic political opposition and civil society since 2015, undermining the oversight mechanisms that would otherwise track conditions on the ground.
With Nyarugusu also scheduled for closure before mid-2026, the question of whether remaining refugees can meaningfully decline repatriation or access alternative protection pathways has not been addressed by the tripartite parties. The UNHCR faces particular scrutiny as both a signatory to the closure agreement and the international body mandated to protect refugees - including from coerced return
